Ottawa, Canada - A former Canadian chief trade negotiator on Monday warned that the US and Canada are unlikely to reach a tariff deal before the midterm elections in November.

Steve Verheul, who led the Canadian renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), told an online audience that President Donald Trump will be looking for a major political win by November.

As a result, his administration is unlikely to tear up the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) anytime soon, and will probably keep it in place for the foreseeable future.

"Most of the rest of the tariff treatment we have is going to continue to be much better than most countries have," Verheul said during a BMO digital event on Monday.

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"We have the advantage of the US industry being almost unanimously supportive of the USMCA," he continued. "The general public in the US are also highly supportive of continuing the USMCA, and almost all of Republican Senators and Congressman more broadly continuing to support the renewal of the USMCA."

"I think that over the slightly longer term we have a strong possibility of getting where we need to be, but it's not going to be a smooth ride."

The USMCA will be up for renegotiation on July 1, making it unlikely an agreement will be reached before the deadline. In the absence of a clear decision, the existing terms will be extended by a year.

"I don't think we'll see an outcome in the short-term necessarily," Verheul explained. "There's a bit of a window around the US midterms where the US administration may be looking for some kind of win."

"If that happens, there's a possibility for it to come together," he said. "But I think it's more likely that the discussions will continue beyond the midterms and possibly even into next year."