Cuban president outlines "three scenarios" US may take to destabilize the island

Havana, Cuba - Cuba's president said in an interview published Monday that the US was considering three possible scenarios for its pressure campaign against the island: fomenting social unrest, assuming control of the economy, or launching a military campaign.

Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel attends a government rally in Havana called to protest US policies toward the island on May 22, 2026.
Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel attends a government rally in Havana called to protest US policies toward the island on May 22, 2026.  © REUTERS

The remarks by Miguel Diaz-Canel to Spanish digital news outlet elDiario.es come as his country faces an escalating economic crisis under President Donald Trump's campaign, which includes a brutal fuel blockade and ramping up of sanctions.

"They are betting on three scenarios," Diaz-Canel said.

"One scenario is through economic strangulation to provoke social unrest, and for that social unrest to then give them the chance, under the pretext of humanitarian aid, to intervene," he said.

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The second is to "continue a coercive dialogue with Cuba, using maximum pressure, in order to seize the Cuban economy, to occupy the country economically and for that to then give them the possibility of provoking a change in the political system, which is the ultimate goal of the United States," he said.

The US has pressured several foreign businesses in recent weeks to halt their activities in Cuba by threatening sanctions against anyone doing deals with state-run enterprises.

It also targeted Diaz-Canel and his family with new sanctions, as well as members of the Castro family.

"A third scenario is that of military aggression," Diaz-Canel added, emphasizing that all three possibilities had been mentioned by Trump and "are constantly in what the US secretary of state says," in reference to Marco Rubio, himself a Cuban-American.

In the face of possible military action, Diaz-Canel defended Cuba's right to prepare to defend itself, in such a way "that there is no surprise" nor "defeat."

Cover photo: REUTERS

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