2026 midterm elections preview: Top Senate races to watch and seats most likely to flip

As the midterms approach, Democrats and Republicans are going head to head in a number of competitive Senate races that could have a major impact on the second half of Donald Trump's presidency.

(From l. to r.) James Talarico of Texas, Troy Jackson of Maine, and Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan are in the midst of competitive midterm election campaigns for US Senate.   © Collage: BRANDON BELL, JOSEPH PREZIOSO & SARAH RICE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

Democrats and Republicans are battling for control over Congress as voters prepare to cast their ballots on November 3.

Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate, but that could change come January should Democrats perform well in the midterms.

The stakes are high: Losing one or both chambers of Congress could make it significantly harder for Trump to push forward his agenda.

James Talarico likens bid to beat Paxton in Texas as "David versus Goliath"
Texas James Talarico likens bid to beat Paxton in Texas as "David versus Goliath"

Polling data show Trump's approval ratings at historic lows, suggesting Democrats might have an added edge this cycle.

These are the top Senate races we're watching as midterm speculation heats up.

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Alaska: Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan

Democrat Mary Peltola, who is Yup'ik, served in the US House from September 2022 to January 2025, becoming the first Alaska Native to do so. Now, she is challenging Republican Dan Sullivan for his Senate seat.

The race is competitive, and it wouldn't be the first time Peltola flipped a congressional seat.

Florida: Angie Nixon v. Ashley Moody

Angie Nixon stunned the political establishment when she won the Democratic nomination for Senate in Florida, despite being massively outspent by her rival, retired Lt. Col. Alex Vindman. Now, Nixon is up against sitting Republican Senator Ashley Moody, who was appointed to the seat after Marco Rubio became secretary of state.

People are eagerly watching to see how far Nixon's progressive policy agenda gets her in a traditionally Republican stronghold.

Georgia: Jon Ossoff v. Mike Collins

In the Peach State, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is fighting to retain his seat against Republican Representative Mike Collins.

Polling suggest Ossoff has a strong chance of winning his bid for a second term in a state Trump won by two percentage points in 2024.

Iowa: Josh Turek v. Ashley Hinson

With the retirement of Republican Senator Joni Ernst, Democrats are hoping to turn the Iowa Senate seat blue for the first time in over a decade.

State Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist, is Democrats' pick for the job. He is facing Trump-endorsed Republican Representative Ashley Hinson.

Kansas: Adam Hamilton v. Roger Marshall

In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, who founded the country's largest United Methodist congregation.

If he wins, Hamilton would become the first Democrat since 1932 to represent the state in Congress' upper chamber.

Maine: Troy Jackson v. Susan Collins

In Maine, long-time Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state senator. Jackson entered the race late after ex-nominee Graham Platner's campaign crashed and burned amid a series of scandals.

From the start of the midterm cycle, Maine was tapped as one of the Senate seats with the greatest possibility of changing hands.

Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed v. Mike Rogers

The Michigan Senate race looks to be a toss-up as Democrat Dr. Abdul El-Sayed takes on Republican former Representative Mike Rogers. El-Sayed, former public health director of Wayne County, won the Democratic primary on a progressive platform despite being hugely outspent in the race.

If he wins in November, he would make history as the nation's first Muslim senator.

Nebraska: Dan Osborn v. Pete Ricketts

Labor union leader Dan Osborn is running an independent campaign against Republican Senator Pete Ricketts, who is seeking reelection. Osborn has said he will not caucus with either party if he wins the race.

Ricketts is endorsed by Trump in a state the president carried by 20.4 percentage points in 2024.

New Hampshire: Chris Pappas v. John Sununu

Democrat Chris Pappas is facing off against Republican John Sununu in New Hampshire after they won their respective primaries. The race is competitive as both candidates boast wide name recognition.

Sununu, whose brother and father served as New Hampshire governor, held the Senate seat from 2003 to 2009. Pappas has represented the state's first congressional district since 2019.

North Carolina: Roy Cooper v. Michael Whatley

North Carolina is one of the most likely states to flip this cycle. Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper is vying for the seat against former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who is backed by Trump.

The winner will replace Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who announced in June 2025 that he would not seek a third term in office.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown v. Jon Husted

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is attempting a Senate comeback after losing his seat in the 2024 election to Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown is up against Republican nominee Jon Husted, who was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine in 2025 to fill the vacancy left when JD Vance became vice president.

With the Trump administration's approval ratings in the tank, polling suggests Brown has a chance to flip the seat. Meanwhile, both candidates are being challenged from the left by Greg Levy of the Party for Socialism and Liberation.

Texas: James Talarico v. Ken Paxton

Last but certainly not least, the Lone Star State is gearing up for a high-stakes, competitive Senate contest. Democrat James Talarico, a state representative, is facing Trump-endorsed Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has been plagued by corruption scandals.

All eyes are on Texas to see whether Talarico can become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in over 30 years.

Voters around the country hit the polls in the closely watched midterms on November 3. Early voting is already underway in many states.