Is Trump's MAGA endorsement power finally losing its sway in the GOP?

Washington DC - Critics are questioning whether President Donald Trump's endorsements have lost their once powerful sway after several MAGA-backed Republicans lost their primary elections.

Several political hopefuls recently lost elections despite support from Donald Trump, leading critics to wonder whether the president's endorsement has lost power.   © Kent NISHIMURA / AFP

On Tuesday, Ryan Elijah managed to defeat incumbent Corey Mills by 13 points in their race to represent Florida's 7th District.

While Mills boasted a strong endorsement from Trump, in the end, it wasn't enough to save the scandal-ridden politician, who is facing a House Ethics Committee investigation and a federal probe.

The president then lashed out in a Truth Social post, claiming he told Mills "to get out of the Race, but he wouldn't listen" and shifted his endorsement to Elijah for the general election.

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Several other elections across the country on Tuesday saw similarly disappointing outcomes for MAGA.

In another Florida race, Trump-backed candidate Catalina Lauf lost her primary by seven points to Jim Schwartzel, and in Wyoming – a state that gave Trump his largest margin of victory in the 2024 presidential election – state Senator Eric Barlow took down Trump-endorsed candidate Megan Degenfelder by 16 points.

Those three candidates now join several political hopefuls who lost primaries despite Trump's endorsement, most recently Amir Hassan in Michigan and Andy Ogles in Tennessee.

A Trump endorsement – often something of a loyalty test – had been perceived as a gold ticket to victory among Republicans, but some suggest that his approval is losing its magic touch.

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Have Donald Trump's endorsements lost their power?

President Donald Trump dances after speaking at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in February 2025.   © ROBERTO SCHMIDT / AFP

The quick answer – much to the dismay of critics – is no.

According to Ballotpedia's endorsement tracker, the president has so far managed a 96% success rate in his primary endorsements this year, keeping up with previous election years, in which he has never fallen below 90%.

It is clear that the Republican Party – as indicated by polling – is still very much behind Trump, and his backing continues to carry weight.

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Donald Trump Trump DOJ defends claim that James Comey called for the president's assassination

But those impressive numbers do not indicate that a red wave may come in November in the general elections, as Trump has several factors working against him.

For starters, the president's polling has reached record lows of around 30%, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with his leadership on numerous issues, including his war in Iran and handling of the economy.

He has been hemorrhaging support from different demographics – most notably groups he has largely depended on, such as young people and Independents.

Second, Trump has so far issued 330 endorsements this year alone – far more than he ever has in the past, with the closest being 306 in 2024. This suggests he is aware that the stakes are much higher, as Republicans need to maintain their majority in Congress to prevent Democrats from taking power and possibly impeaching him for a third time.

And finally, his MAGA base has become far more fractured, as many prominent loyalists – including Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene – have now become critics.

Ahead of the midterms, the Republican Party has pushed to pass new election laws, while Trump has railed against mail-in voting as "inherently corrupt" – despite using it himself.