Austin, Texas - New polling data out of Texas shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton with a narrow edge in the primaries for US Senate.
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey found that 52% of likely voters favored state Representative James Talarico in the Democratic primary – surpassing US Representative Jasmine Crockett's 47% support.
Conducted between February 26-27, the poll found that Talarico leads among white voters (71%), Hispanic/Latino voters (60%), and men (58%).
Crockett leads among Black voters (80%) and women (51%).
Talarico shows greater support among voters under 40 – 54% to Crockett's 44% – as well as among voters over 70 – 55% to Crockett's 42%. Voters in their 40s to 60s appear evenly split between the two candidates.
"Talarico holds a sizable advantage among voters who voted early, 58% to 41%, while Crockett leads the Election Day vote, 50% to 39%, suggesting the outcome will depend on which group shows up in larger numbers by the end of Tuesday," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Other surveys show Crockett in the lead. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll conducted between February 2-16 found her to have 56% support among registered Democratic primary voters to Talarico's 44%.
Ken Paxton appears to have edge in Republican Senate primary
On the Republican side, Texas' current Attorney General Ken Paxton leads incumbent Senator John Cornyn 40% to 36%, with state Representative Wesley Hunt trailing at 17%.
"Senator Cornyn performs strongest among Republican Primary voters with college degrees, leading Paxton 43% to 32%, and voters over 70, 52% to 35%, while Paxton leads with voters under 50, 38% to 22%, and voters in their 50s and 60s, 44% to 30%," Kimball said.
"With Rep. Hunt picking up 18% among early voters, his presence in the race appears likely to hold Paxton and Cornyn under the 50% needed to avoid a runoff."
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges of corruption before being acquitted in the Senate.
The Texas AG is the top candidate among voters who cast ballots for Donald Trump in 2024. The president has yet to make an endorsement in the race.
Texas voters hit the polls on March 3 in some of the earliest primaries of the 2026 midterm election year.