Washington DC - President Donald Trump's administration could be on the hook for as much as $182 billion if it is ordered to refund revenue collected through tariffs ruled to be unlawful.

A judge on Wednesday ordered the Trump administration to stop assessing global tariffs on imports where customs payments have not been finalized, a move some experts view as a step towards broader refunds.

A study by economists at the University of Pennsylvania cited by Reuters estimated that Customs and Border Protection had collected up to $182 billion in revenue based on Trump's sweeping tariff policy by the end of February 2026.

Another estimation, produced by Penn-Wharton, used a different method but came to a similar number, estimating that about $177 billion in tariff revenues would need to be refunded.

A Supreme Court ruling in February declared that the president's use of International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on both US allies and adversaries was an overreach of his authority.

Trump responded to the Supreme Court ruling by issuing blanket 10% tariffs across most of the world. He later updated those tariffs to 15%.