Probability of China invading Taiwan in 2027 assessed in new US intelligence report
Washington DC - China currently has no specific plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 but does intend to gain control of the island without the use of force, a new US intelligence report claims.
"Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification," the annual threat assessment report issued by the office of National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard says.
"China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a US attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China's rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force."
Indications remain that Beijing's longer-term goal is to complete its "national rejuvenation" and bring all of its claimed territories into the fold by the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in 2049.
The report comes a year after the Pentagon flagged 2027 as a possible timeline for an attack and offered a more measured analysis.
"In 2026, Beijing probably will continue seeking to set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict," the Defense Department claimed.
It cautioned, however, that Chinese officials recognize that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan "would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of US intervention."
China's Foreign Ministry condemned the intelligence report, with spokesperson Lin Jian on Thursday saying that "the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair" and the US should "speak and act cautiously."
"The US should... correct their understanding of China and stop hyping up the China threat theory," he said during his daily press conference in response to a question about the report.
Cover photo: IMAGO/YAY Images
