Ottawa, Canada - Despite mounting pressure over an affordability crisis, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party is poised to secure itself a parliamentary majority in a series of by-elections set for Monday.

A string of recent polls puts Carney's Liberal Party more than 10 points ahead of the opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre.

Yet, on a bright chilly morning in a Toronto area, one of three districts holding by-elections next week to fill parliamentary seats, some said that Carney's credentials are yet to deliver tangible results.

"He talks a good game but nothing ever changes," David Gilhooly, a 52-year-old with a long, thick beard told the AFP.

Carney led the central banks of Canada and the UK before replacing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in March 2025. He went on to secure a victory in last year's election, defying expectations that the Liberals faced an electoral wipeout.

He secured the victory by persuading Canadians that he was the ideal leader to confront the trade conflicts and geopolitical turmoil triggered by President Donald Trump's return to the White House.

The victory was not overwhelming, however, and Carney's Liberals fell just short of a majority.

In recent months, his popularity has grown, partially on account of a series of speeches he's given warning that Canada needs to dramatically reduce its economic and security dependence on the US.

The Liberals have also poached five opposition lawmakers to join their caucus, a stunning achievement that means that Carney's party only needs to secure two seats on Monday to take pull control Canada's parliament.

To make matters even more promising, two of the districts in contention on Monday are safe Liberal seats in Toronto.

"What are you actually offering on the ground level?" asked Gilhooly, who described Carney as a "slick guy" who's comfortable in suits. "I don't think things are getting better."

While Carney's political fortunes look positive on the surface, public surveys support Gilhooly's analysis, the Angus Reid Institute finding last month that "concerns over the high cost of living are higher than they have been in recent memory."

Grocery prices are up more than 20% since 2022, and unemployment is at 6.7%, an elevated number caused partly by Trump's tariff regime.

More than 40% of Canadians told Angus Reid that they were feeling medium or high levels of financial pressure over issues like food prices and personal debt.

The Conservatives are hammering this point home, pointing to what they see as Carney's failure to turn rhetoric about economic transformation into relief.

A Nanos poll from last week showed that the Liberals still lead the Conservatives by 15 points. In head-to-head leadership surveys, Carney trounces Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

"I don't recall any period in the past where the popularity of the incumbent prime minister has shot up so quickly and so profoundly a year after an election," said Nelson Wiseman, a politics professor at the University of Toronto.