The US braces for above-normal hurricane season as climate agency NOAA is gutted by Trump

Washington DC - The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday predicted a more intense Atlantic hurricane season this year, even as the Trump administration moves to gut the agency's workforce and slash its budget.

Heavy rains from Hurricane Helene caused record flooding and damage on September 28, 2024 in Asheville, North Carolina.
Heavy rains from Hurricane Helene caused record flooding and damage on September 28, 2024 in Asheville, North Carolina.  © Melissa Sue Gerrits / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

NOAA is forecasting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, with between 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.

Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including three to five major hurricanes classed as categories three, four, or five, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

There is also a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, the agency said.

The administration is also seeking to dismantle the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), calling for it to be shut down and its duties instead handed to individual states.

FEMA's acting head, Cameron Hamilton – who was appointed by the Trump administration – was fired earlier this month after saying that eliminating the agency was not "in the best interests of the American people."

The forecast cites a confluence of factors: neutral conditions in the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, predictions of weak wind shear, and increased activity from the West African Monsoon – the starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

"As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm in a statement.

"NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property."

Why is the Trump administration going against NOAA?

President Donald Trump is seeking to cut NOAA's research operations budget by $1.3 billion next year. Project 2025 – the conservative blueprint the administration is using to guide its second-term agenda – has labeled the agency a key driver of "climate alarmism."

Last year, five storms that were big enough that they were assigned names caused economic losses exceeding a billion dollars, adjusted for inflation, according to NOAA.

President Donald Trump is seeking to cut NOAA's research operations budget by $1.3 billion next year.
President Donald Trump is seeking to cut NOAA's research operations budget by $1.3 billion next year.  © Kevin Dietsch / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

The deadliest of these was Helene, responsible for 250 US deaths – the most since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The Trump administration announced earlier this month that it will stop updating its billion-dollar disaster database, which for 44 years illustrated the rising cost of climate destabilization.

Cover photo: Melissa Sue Gerrits / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

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