Leaked US intelligence raises worrying questions over Ukraine spring offensive

Kyiv, Ukraine - The US is doubtful whether a planned counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces will bring significant gains in the fight against the Russian invasion, according to the Washington Post.

The US doubts that a counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces will bring big gains in the fight against the Russian invasion.
The US doubts that a counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces will bring big gains in the fight against the Russian invasion.  © REUTERS

The paper writes that according to the trove of leaked classified Pentagon documents that surfaced on social media platforms this month, the Ukrainian military could fall "well short" of the government's original plans to retake Russian-occupied areas in the spring, due to difficulties in massing ammunition, equipment and troops.

However, it remains unclear whether the documents are genuine and how they reached the press and social media. Investigations continue into their origins.

The leaked documents suggest the US government's "misgivings" about the state of the war, according to the Post.

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The assessment, which the paper said was issued in early February, warns of considerable "'force generation and sustainment shortfalls,'" and "is likely to embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict," according to the report.

US pessimistic on counteroffensive gains

Ukraine is not expected to recapture as much territory as it did last fall.
Ukraine is not expected to recapture as much territory as it did last fall.  © REUTERS

What appear to be classified documents from US intelligence agencies have been circulating online for weeks - often in pro-Russian channels - with apparent intelligence details about the war in Ukraine drawing particular attention.

According to the information, Kyiv's strategy was focused on retaking embattled areas in the east of the country while also advancing south to cut the Russian land bridge to the occupied Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, the report said.

Citing its own intelligence sources, the Post wrote that US officials had come to the conclusion that the outcome of the expected Ukrainian spring offensive would be "modest."

According to that assessment, Ukraine is "unlikely to recapture as much territory as Kyiv did last fall in Ukraine’s stunning breakthroughs in the east and south."

Cover photo: REUTERS

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